Optimal information revelation in procurement schemes

A buyer procuring a single input possesses private information about each potential supplier's degree of fit with the buyer's needs. She can search among suppliers either sequentially or simultaneously. As long as the distribution of the fit parameter is not overly skewed to the left, sharing information with suppliers yields intensified price competition under simultaneous search. Moreover, the buyer cannot benefit by providing suppliers additional information beyond their own fitness parameter. Information revelation is never optimal with sequential search.     

Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting Fundamentals

This study uses recent developments in the theoretical modelling of the links between unrecorded accounting goodwill, accounting profitability and the cost of equity, together with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) betas, to estimate the ex-ante equity risk premium in the UK. The results suggest that, over our sample period from 1968 to 1995, the premium has been in the region of 5%. Our estimate lends support to the view that the ex-ante equity risk premium is substantially less than the historical average of the excess of equity returns over the risk-free rate, and is similar to the rates applied recently by UK competition regulators.     

Does China＇s Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi？

A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China's export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for major trading partners, creating acute policy concerns abroad, especially in the USA. This paper provides a straightforward conceptual framework for interpreting the effect of China's exchange rate policy on its own trade balance and that of trading partners in the context of discrepant economic growth rates. It shows how pegging the exchange rate when output is outstripping expenditure induces China's trade surpluses and counterpart deficits for its trading partners. An important corollary is that given its strictly regulated capital account, China's persistently large surpluses imply a significantly undervalued renminbi, which should gradually become more flexible.     

Trading Arrangements and Industrial Development

This article outlines a new approach for analyzing the roleof trade in promoting industrial development. It offers an explanationas to why firms are reluctant to move to countries with lowerlabor costs and shows how trade liberalization can change theincentives for firms to locate in developing countries. It modelseconomic development as the spread of concentrations of firmsfrom country to country. Different trading arrangements mayhave a major impact on this development process. By changingthe attractiveness of countries as a base for manufacturingproduction, they can potentially trigger—or postpone—industrialdevelopment. The analysis shows that unilaterally liberalizingimports of manufactures can promote industrialization but thatmembership in a preferential trading arrangement is likely tocreate larger gains. South-South preferential trading arrangementswill be sensitive to the market size of member states, whileNorth-South arrangements seem to offer better prospects forparticipating southern countries, if not for excluded countries.     

WHAT AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY DOES AND DOES NOT CLAIM AS TRUE

Contemporary economic commentators have a habit of dismissing Austrian business cycle theory on the grounds that the implications for policy responses are unconvincing. Often the ‘Austrian’ position is misunderstood. But even if we wish to draw on other schools of thought to understand depressions, this does not affect the importance of Austrian insights to explain the boom.     

The disclosure of key performance indicators in the public sector

This article investigates the disclosure of key performance indicators in the annual reports of Irish public sector organizations. It begins by discussing the two main driving forces behind public sector bodies disclosing performance information in their annual reports for the first time as well as looking at other contributing factors. The present situation with regard to the disclosure of key performance indicators in the whole of Ireland is then analysed. A number of annual reports from central government departments or agencies, local government bodies, other public sector entities and, in the case of the Republic of Ireland, semi-state organizations are examined to see whether such information is being disclosed and, more importantly, whether performance indicators are being linked to predetermined objectives and targets.